China agrochemical supply outlook signals market shift through 2026

CHINA – China’s agrochemical industry is entering a period of change as policy direction, export trends, and global demand reshape supply patterns through 2026 and beyond.

Recent data from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China shows the country’s total foreign trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, about US$6.37 trillion, in 2025.

Exports accounted for 26.99 trillion yuan, about US$3.78 trillion, while imports reached 18.48 trillion yuan, about US$2.59 trillion. The figures show year on year growth of 3.8 percent, supported by rising exports and steady global demand.

China continues to hold a central position in global crop protection supply because of its broad manufacturing base and steady production output. Estimates from SPM show pesticide exports rose between 16 percent and 18 percent in 2025 compared to 2024.

Farmers worldwide increasingly choose cost friendly products as they respond carefully to swings in agricultural commodity prices.

Industry observers note that Chinese generic pesticide products have gained ground across key markets. At the same time, multinational corporations maintain stable shares, which keeps competition strong across the sector.

Analysts warn that global market adjustments may take longer than domestic shifts in China. They expect global changes to stretch between three and four years because of registration rules and corporate planning cycles.

Policy direction and industrial adjustment

China is preparing to roll out its 15th Five Year Plan for the pesticide sector, which will shape production and investment priorities. Authorities want companies to focus on efficient production rather than expanding output at all costs.

Regulators also plan to monitor new production capacity more closely to prevent supply gluts that followed aggressive investments before 2023.

Export policy changes will also affect the sector. The State Taxation Administration and Ministry of Finance announced that export VAT refunds for certain downstream pesticide products from the phosphorus chemical sector will end on April 1, 2026. Officials expect the policy to support domestic demand while regulating the use of limited resources.

The Economist noted, “China’s stock of outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at just 17% of its GDP in 2024, much of it in infrastructure and resources projects in developing countries, compared with 38% for America and 57% for Japan.” The publication added, “China’s stock of overseas fdi accounts for just 4% of the global total, about half that of the Netherlands.”

Pricing outlook and global expansion

Industry experts expect pesticide prices from China to remain stable in 2026, although a stronger yuan and geopolitical uncertainty may push US dollar based prices upward. Price swings have already appeared in several products. The price of CTPR TC reached US$44 per kilogram EXW before dropping to US$33 per kilogram within two months. Topramezone TC prices also fell from US$200 per kilogram in 2024 to below US$71 per kilogram.

Meanwhile, chemical export growth is not limited to China. Egypt reported chemical and fertilizer exports worth more than US$9.43 billion in 2025, up from US$8.78 billion in 2024, supported by demand across Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Italy led as the largest buyer at US$1.284 billion, followed by Turkey at US$1.103 billion and Brazil at US$652 million.

Analysts expect Chinese producers to increase branded product sales and expand overseas partnerships over the next decade as they strengthen their presence in global crop protection markets.

Sign up to receive our email newsletters with the latest news updates and insights from Africa and the World HERE.