South Africa expects avocado export recovery in 2026 despite shipping risks
Producers plan higher shipments as new orchards raise supply, but conflict around key sea routes may slow trade.
SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa expects a stronger avocado export season in 2026 after a weaker year, though conflict along key shipping routes still threatens trade.
The country’s avocado industry plans to ship about 22 million cartons of fruit to global markets in 2026, equal to about 88,000 tons. Derek Donkin shared the outlook with Farmer’s Weekly on March 9. Donkin leads the South African Subtropical Fruit Growers Association, which tracks production and export trends.
If growers reach this target, exports will rise by about 15.8 percent from the 76,000 tons sent abroad in 2025. The figure will also pass the 82,787 tons shipped in 2024. South Africa stands among Africa’s key avocado exporters together with Kenya and Morocco.
Donkin links the expected growth to new orchards that have reached full production.
“We expect a larger crop this season as more young orchards reach maturity and start producing at scale,” he said.
Industry data shows that exporters send about 60 percent of South Africa’s avocado crop abroad each year. Farmers sell the remaining share in the local market.
Trade figures also highlight the scale of the export sector. In 2024, South Africa shipped avocados worth about US$204 million. Buyers in the European Union generated roughly 76 percent of that revenue. The United Kingdom accounted for about 13 percent, while Russia and Asian markets made up smaller shares.
Growers have also tried to expand sales in Asia after new access opened in China, India and Japan. Industry groups say talks could begin in 2026 to open the market in South Korea.
Shipping disruptions remain a risk
Exporters still face major risks along global shipping routes. Attacks by Houthi forces in the Red Sea pushed many vessels away from the Suez Canal last year, which raised costs and added days to travel time for cargo headed to Europe.
Tension across the Middle East has also grown. Reports say Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz during a recent rise in conflict with the United States and Israel. The situation has added fresh worry for exporters that rely on stable sea routes.
“Avocados can remain on the tree for some time, which gives growers and exporters room to adjust harvest plans,” said Zac Bard of Westfalia Fruit. “If market conditions shift, exporters should work closely with growers to adjust harvest and sales plans so they reach the best result.”
Recent reports from trade groups also show wider pressure on South African fruit shipments. Industry bodies say vessels now avoid risky routes and sail around the Cape of Good Hope instead. The detour can add 10 to 14 days to shipping time and raise fuel and insurance costs. Export groups warn that these delays could also affect avocados if the situation continues through the 2026 season.
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