Global fertilizer prices to surge by 21% in 2025, World Bank warns
Higher costs may squeeze farmers’ profits and affect crop yields worldwide.
GLOBAL – After a relatively calm 2024, global fertilizer prices are now climbing fast, with the World Bank forecasting a 21% rise by the end of 2025.
The increase, reported in the latest Commodity Markets Outlook published on October 29, stems from high demand and continued trade disruptions affecting key suppliers.
Prices have gone up almost every month since the start of the year, with the fertilizer price index showing a level 30% higher in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2024.
Urea, a major nitrogen fertilizer, recorded a 36.6% year-on-year rise in September to US$461 per tonne. Diammonium phosphate (DAP), one of the most common phosphate fertilizers, increased by 41% to $554.8 per tonne. Meanwhile, potassium chloride (MOP) climbed 23% to $286.9 per tonne.
The World Bank attributes this upward trend to strong demand meeting tight supply. China continues to restrict nitrogen fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market and has reduced phosphate sales to prioritize lithium iron phosphate production used in electric vehicle batteries.
Belarus, another major supplier of potash, remains under European Union sanctions, while Russia faces new European tariffs on fertilizer exports.
Market pressures and future outlook
According to the World Bank, “DAP prices are expected to increase by 26% in 2025, before declining by 8% in 2026.” The report also projects that “MOP tariffs will rise by 19% this year, while urea prices will jump 30% before easing by 7% in 2026 and 9% in 2027.”
These figures point to growing strain for farmers, especially in developing economies. “Higher fertilizer prices are likely to further erode farmers’ profit margins and raise concerns about future agricultural yields,” the institution cautioned.
Analysts warn that sustained high prices could slow recovery in food production after years of market instability. Many small-scale farmers in Africa, Asia, and Latin America may find it difficult to afford fertilizers, risking lower productivity and rising food costs.
Recent policy shifts could also influence global supply. China’s export restrictions are expected to remain in place through next year, while geopolitical tensions continue to limit trade flows from Eastern Europe. Industry experts believe this mix of economic and political pressure could prolong fertilizer shortages into 2026.
For many producers, the next few seasons will be defined by cost management and adaptation. The World Bank noted that while prices may eventually ease, “the current environment underscores how dependent global food systems remain on fertilizer supply and trade stability.”
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