Global food output projected to grow by 14% by 2034 as prices ease

GLOBAL – Global food production is on track to rise by 14% over the next decade, according to a new joint report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

The report attributes the increase to population and income growth, which will drive stronger demand for meat and dairy products, particularly in middle-income countries.

The report shows that global meat production will grow by 13% by 2034, with poultry leading the way. Poultry consumption is expected to rise by 21%, followed by sheepmeat at 16%, beef at 13%, and pork at 5%. The outlook reflects changing diets across different income groups and regions.

OECD secretary-general Mathias Cormann said there is strong potential to meet both food security and environmental goals.

“Ending hunger around the world by 2034 is well within our reach, and this does not have to come at the expense of environmental sustainability,” he said.

“Our analysis shows we can reduce emissions from agriculture by 7% by 2034, while improving food security at the same time.”

The report notes that consumption patterns will remain uneven across the world. While middle-income nations will consume more meat and dairy, low-income countries will continue to rely heavily on staple foods.

High-income regions, on the other hand, are showing a shift away from red meat towards poultry, fish, and plant-based proteins.

Livestock and price trends

Global beef and poultry prices remain supported by ongoing demand and tight supply. Prices for red meat are expected to peak in 2027 as producers gradually rebuild their herds and flocks.

However, in the longer term, livestock prices are projected to decline as more consumers choose lower-cost proteins like poultry and pork.

Cormann noted that this trend may place extra pressure on producers.
“We project that productivity improvements will lead to declining real agricultural commodity prices over the medium term, putting downwards pressure on farmers’ margins, which are already vulnerable to market volatility,” he said.

FAO chief economist Maximo Torero Cullen also pointed to expected price shifts.
“Global agricultural commodity prices are expected to continue declining in real terms,” he said. “This trend also poses a challenge as farmers with lower productivity may find it difficult to remain profitable in a low-price environment.”

Milk and cereal output also set to rise

Global milk production is projected to increase by 1.8% annually through 2034, but growth in the EU will slow due to fewer cows and weaker yield gains.

While full-fat dairy and cheese are seeing greater interest in Europe and North America, butter prices are likely to ease in the short term after hitting record highs. Still, demand for butter and skimmed milk powder remains strong over the longer run.

The report also points to a 1.1% annual increase in global cereal production, driven by better yields and a slight increase in harvested land. By 2034, FAO expects 40% of cereal crops will go to human food, 33% to animal feed, and the rest to industrial uses, including biofuels.

Torero Cullen added that prices for grains and fertiliser are likely to remain steady in real terms.

This new data gives businesses across the food chain a clear view of where global demand is heading, and what they need to plan for in the decade ahead.

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