Koltiva analysis warns US$3B of East African agri-exports at risk as EU tightens traceability rules

EAST AFRICA – According to a new analysis by Koltiva, East Africa risks losing €2.75 billion (approx US$3.0 billion) in agricultural exports as the European Union enforces stricter traceability and due diligence rules.

Most agribusinesses in the region remain unprepared for the incoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), leaving high-value markets in jeopardy.

Agriculture remains the backbone of East Africa’s economy, contributing more than 32 percent of GDP and employing over 80 percent of the population.

Europe absorbs more than 60 percent of the region’s coffee exports and remains a major buyer of tea, cocoa, cereals, horticulture, oil crops, rubber, and timber across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Burundi.

Koltiva’s report and industry insights show that EU buyers have begun slowing or scaling back purchases where traceability cannot be verified. Products with complex, smallholder-dominated supply chains, such as coffee, cocoa, tea, cereals, and timber, face the greatest risk.

Experts from aBi, Diageo, Café Africa, and Koltiva emphasized during Koltiva’s Beyond Traceability Talks that the main threat is delayed action, not compliance cost.

Susan Atyang, Regional Program Manager at the Agricultural Business Initiative, said, “Traceability enables competitiveness, market access, and financial inclusion.” She explained that aBi evaluates company readiness before supporting digital traceability implementation, including clear ROI, audited accounts, farmer reach, and compliance systems.

Digital tools and farmer empowerment

Low digital literacy, limited smartphone access, weak connectivity, and fragmented supply chains continue to slow adoption. Internet penetration in East Africa stands at 28.5 percent, far below the global average of 67.9 percent. Many smallholders also lack formal land documentation, complicating geolocation verification.

Waithera Muriithi, Strategy & Innovation Lead at Café Africa Uganda, stressed the importance of farmer awareness. “You cannot achieve traceability without farmer empowerment. The real challenge is not ability, it is awareness. When farmers understand the benefits, adoption accelerates.” Café Africa supports national coordination, including EUDR task forces and a shared data warehouse to simplify compliance.

Fanny Butler, Senior Head of Markets EMEA at Koltiva, emphasized shared investment. “There is no sustainability without traceability, and the demand will only keep increasing. Early movers will gain the advantage.”

She explained that buyers can fund onboarding, suppliers maintain data quality, and development partners co-finance mapping, creating a sustainable model for smallholder-heavy regions.

Koltiva CEO Manfred Borer added, “East Africa has the resources, the productive ecosystems, and the global demand. What it needs now is synchronized readiness. Traceability is no longer a niche initiative. It is the price of participating in the world’s most valuable markets.”

East Africa is projected to contribute 19 percent of additional global agricultural production over the next decade. Closing the traceability and compliance gap will determine whether the region maintains access to premium EU markets or faces shrinking trade opportunities.

Sign up to receive our email newsletters with the latest news updates and insights from Africa and the World HERE.