South Africa records deeper slowdown in food inflation as crop outlook improves
Food inflation drops to 3.9 percent in October as key produce prices fall.
SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa’s food inflation dropped again in October 2025, falling to 3.9 percent year-on-year.
This marks another step down after the rate eased from 5.5 percent in July to 5.2 percent in August and 4.4 percent in September.
Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, noted that “the latest update on South Africa’s food inflation shows a further downside surprise to 3.9 percent.”
Several food groups pulled overall inflation down. Vegetables showed the strongest drop, easing by 5.6 percentage points from the previous month. Fruits and nuts fell by 3.7 percentage points. Sugar, confectionery and desserts slipped by 0.5 percentage points, and meat eased by 0.3 percentage points.
Vegetable prices fell sharply because of a steep decline in key items. Fresh potatoes dropped by 30.9 percent year-on-year while onions fell by 4.5 percent. Meat also lost earlier momentum as shoppers cut back and local supply improved.
Makube explained that “meat lost steam after surging to record highs in the past few months due to a combination of consumer demand constraints and improved availability domestically.” Meat inflation now sits at 11.4 percent, down from 11.7 percent in September, with growth steadying each month.
Food inflation also remained in deflation for the third month in a row on a monthly basis, easing by 0.1 percent in October.
Cereal prices signal possible trend shift
Cereal inflation at consumer level slowed to 2 percent in October. Behind that number, raw crop prices continue to fall. Average monthly white maize prices dropped by 35.3 percent from last year to R3,627 (about US$211) per ton.
Yellow maize fell by 1.4 percent to R3,493 (about US$203) per ton. Wheat eased by 0.6 percent to R5,911 (US $344) per ton. Makube noted that these movements “signal a potential reversal of the cereal inflation trajectory in the medium term.”
A strong crop outlook anchors this trend. Farmers expect to increase 2025/26 summer crop plantings by 1.3 percent to 4.50 million hectares. Maize and soybeans will take up more land, with maize rising to 2.67 million hectares and soybeans to 1.18 million hectares.
The livestock sector still faces trade problems due to ongoing foot and mouth disease disruptions. Vaccination work continues around the country, but the disease limits full recovery in exports.
Even with that challenge, broader conditions look more supportive. Interest rate expectations point downward, forecasts show better seasonal production, and La Nina is set to return. The rand has also strengthened and now trades below R17 (US$1) to the US dollar for the first time since early 2023.
Makube expects more cooling ahead, saying that “we expect further downside surprises in food inflation outcomes in the medium term.”
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