Suez Canal traffic remains far below pre crisis levels despite pause in Red Sea attacks

EGYPT – Traffic through Egypt’s Suez Canal continues to lag well behind earlier levels, despite a halt in attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and signs of a slow return by major shipping lines.

Data from BIMCO shows that canal traffic in the first week of 2026 stood 60 percent below the same period in 2023, before ships began rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. The figures suggest that shipowners remain cautious, even after the Houthis announced an end to attacks on vessels.

“100 days ago, on 29 September, the Minervagracht was to become the last ship to be attacked by the Houthis, at least for now. Forty three days later, the Houthis declared an end to their attacks on ships. Despite this, traffic through the Suez Canal has not significantly increased and in the first week of 2026 remained 60 percent below the corresponding week in 2023, before ships started diverting around the Cape of Good Hope,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

Sharp fall across ship segments

Lloyd’s List reports that ships have faced attack or hijacking 99 times since November 2023. While November and December 2023 saw 15 attacks, traffic through the canal only dropped sharply from January 2024 onwards. Since then, quarterly deadweight tonnage passing through the canal has stayed between 51 percent and 64 percent below 2023 levels.

“During 2025, Suez Canal DWT transits have been 57 to 64 percent lower than in 2023. In the fourth quarter, transits by bulkers, container ships, crude and product tankers were respectively 55 percent, 86 percent, 32 percent and 19 percent lower than in 2023,” Rasmussen said.

Most shipping segments showed similar patterns through 2025. Product tankers stood out, as higher freight rate premiums encouraged more owners to use the canal. This shift reduced the decline in product tanker transits to 19 percent in the final quarter of 2025, compared with a 45 percent drop in 2024.

Early signs of a return

Container shipping has largely stayed away from the canal since the attacks began. However, CMA CGM has confirmed that its MEDEX and INDAMEX services will resume Suez Canal routes in January 2026. Maersk has also taken a first step back. On 19 December 2025, the Maersk Sebarok became the company’s first vessel to transit the canal since early 2024.

Maersk said, “assuming that security thresholds continue to be met, we are considering continuing our stepwise approach towards gradually resuming navigation along the East West corridor via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.”

Lower war risk insurance costs may support this gradual shift. In early December, S&P Global reported that premiums had fallen to 0.2 percent of hull value, down from 0.5 percent before the Israel Hamas ceasefire.

“A normalisation of ship transits now appears more likely than at any point during the last two years, but it remains unknown if, or how fast, this may happen,” Rasmussen said.

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